A better method is to try to derive each team’s true talent level, taking into account everything we know so far while also adjusting for the small sample size of 18 games played, including the playoffs, similar to how we created The Post’s weeklypower rankings. Those win rates take into account a team’s actual record andwhat its record should be based on points scored and allowed also known as itsPythagorean win percentage which is then used to simulate the playoffs 5,000times. By this method, New England wins Super Bowl LII 78 percent of the time,implying a final margin of victory of seven to eight points..
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